Saturday, December 25, 2010

Wow ...LAtest Technology Intel predicts 10GHz chips by 2011

Intel is predicting that its microprocessors will hit 10GHz by the year 2011. In addition, it is currently working on a system bus that is 10 times faster than its upcoming 400 MHz (4*100MHz) Pentium 4 system bus, working at effective speeds of around 4 GHz.

What will we do with all that processor power? Intel is working hard to bring high-end applications to your desktop featuring much more video, speech interaction, and more complex and functional user interfaces.Hopefully, most of you are familiar with Moore's Law, so this doesn't come as a surprise to you. If not, Moore's Law states that the number of transistors in a common microprocessor will double every 18 months. As well, it can be applied to processor speed and many other computing/technology metrics. This law has more or less (no pun intended) held true since the transistor was invented. So, assuming that early 2001 is a time when 1 GHz processors are rampant let's see what we get if we apply Moore's Law:

early 2001: 1 GHz
mid 2002: 2 GHz
early 2004: 4 GHz
mid 2005: 8 GHz
early 2007: 16 GHz
mid 2008: 32 GHz
early 2010: 64 GHz
mid 2011: 128 GHz

This is very interesting indeed. Intel appears to be underestimating progress in 2011 by a full factor of 10. Even by doing that, it's still making headlines with its predictions. Some will call this crazy, but those that yell the loudest have the shortest memories.

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